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Malingana ndi ndondomeko ya mlungu ndi mlungu yomwe yatulutsidwa lero, Fed yataya ndalama zokwana madola 532 biliyoni kuyambira pachimake mu April, kubweretsa chuma chonse ku $ 8.43 trilioni, chotsika kwambiri kuyambira September 2021. chuma chonse chatsika ndi $74 biliyoni.
Kuyambira pachimake kumayambiriro kwa mwezi wa June, ndalama za Fed za US Treasuries zagwera $ 374 biliyoni mpaka $ 5.34 trilioni, mlingo wotsika kwambiri kuyambira September 2021. Mwezi wapitawu, ndalama za Fed ku US Treasuries zagwera $ 60,4 biliyoni, pamwamba pa $ 60 biliyoni denga.
Ndalama za Treasury ndi ma bond zimalembedwa pa balance sheet pakati komanso kumapeto kwa mwezi, pamene Fed imalandira mtengo wawo. Malire obweza pamwezi ndi $60 biliyoni.
Kuyambira pachimake, Fed yadula $ 115 biliyoni ya zomwe ili nazo ku MBS, kuphatikiza $ 17 biliyoni m'mwezi watha, kubweretsa ndalama zonse ku $ 2.62 trilioni.
Ndalama zonse za MBS zomwe zachotsedwa papepala mwezi uliwonse kuyambira pamene QT inakhazikitsidwa zakhala pansi pa $35 biliyoni.
MBS imasowa pa pepala la ndalama makamaka ngati ntchito ya malipiro aakulu omwe eni ake onse amalandira akalipira ngongole yanyumba, monga kubweza ngongole yanyumba kapena kugulitsa nyumba yobwereketsa, komanso kubweza ngongole yanyumba nthawi zonse.
Pomwe mitengo yanyumba idakwera kuchoka pa 3% kufika kupitilira 6%, anthu akulipirabe ngongole zanyumba, koma ndalama zobwereketsa zatsika, kugulitsa nyumba kwatsika, komanso kubweza ndalama zazikuluzikulu zasowa.
Kusintha kwa ndalama zazikuluzikulu kumachepetsa ndalama za MBS, monga momwe zikusonyezera kutsika kwa zigzag pa tchati chomwe chili pansipa.
Kukwera pamwamba pa tchaticho kunayamba pamene Fed inali kugula MBS, koma pakati pa mwezi wa September mchitidwe wonyansawu unaimitsidwa kwathunthu ndipo kukwera pamwamba pa tchati kunasowa.
Tikuyembekezerabe umboni uliwonse kuchokera ku Fed kuti ikuganiza mozama kugulitsa MBS kuti ibweretse malire a mwezi uliwonse ku $ 35 biliyoni. Pakali pano, amayenera kugulitsa pakati pa $15 biliyoni ndi $20 biliyoni pamwezi kuti afikire kapu. Mabwanamkubwa angapo a Fed adanenanso kuti Fed ikhoza kusunthira mbali imeneyo.
Zindikirani mu tchati pamwambapa kuti mu 2019 ndi 2020, MBS idatsika pamtengo wokwera pamwamba pomwe mitengo yanyumba idatsika, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti kuchuluke pakubweza ndalama komanso kugulitsa nyumba. QT-1 inatha mu Julayi 2019 koma MBS idapitilirabe kutsika mpaka February 2020 pomwe Fed idalowa m'malo mwake ndi US Treasuries ndipo ndalama zake zidayamba kuwukanso mu Ogasiti 2019 monga momwe tawonetsera patchati pamwambapa.
Bungwe la Fed lanena mobwerezabwereza kuti silikufuna kukhala ndi MBS pamabanki ake, mwina chifukwa kuchuluka kwa ndalama sikungadziwike komanso kusagwirizana kotero kuti kumasokoneza ndondomeko yandalama, komanso chifukwa chakuti kukhala ndi MBS kungasokoneze Ngongole yamakampani (ngongole yanyumba) yoposa. mitundu ina yangongole za mabungwe aboma. Ichi ndichifukwa chake posachedwa titha kuwona nkhani zazikulu zokhuza kugulitsa mwachindunji kwa MBS.
Malipiro osasinthika adatsika $3 biliyoni pamwezi, akutsika $45 biliyoni kuchokera pachimake mu Novembala 2021 mpaka $311 biliyoni.
Ichi ndi chiyani? Pazitetezo zogulidwa ndi Federal Reserve mumsika wachiwiri, pamene zokolola za msika zili pansi pa coupon rate ya zotetezedwa, Federal Reserve, monga wina aliyense, ayenera kulipira "premium" mopitirira muyeso wa nkhope. Koma ma bond akakhwima, a Fed, monga wina aliyense, amalipidwa pamtengo wake. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, posinthanitsa ndi malipiro apamwamba kuposa amsika, padzakhala kutayika kwakukulu pamtengo wamtengo wapatali pamene bondi ikukhwima.
M'malo molemba kutayika kwakukulu pamene chigwirizano chikukhwima, a Fed amawononga ndalamazo pang'onopang'ono sabata iliyonse pa moyo wa mgwirizano. Fed imasunga ndalama zotsalazo mu akaunti ina.
Kusintha kwa ndalama za Central Bank. Ndalamazo zakhala zikusinthana ndi mabanki ena akuluakulu kumene mabanki apakati amatha kusinthana ndalama zawo ndi Fed kwa madola kudzera mu swaps kukhwima kwa nthawi yoikika (nenani masiku 7), pambuyo pake Ndalama zimabwezera ndalama zawo. madola, ndipo banki ina yaikulu imachotsa ndalama zake. Pakali pano pali $427 miliyoni mumasinthidwe apamwamba (ndi chilembo M):
"Ngongole Yoyambira" - Kuchotsera zenera. Pambuyo pakukwera kwamitengo yadzulo, a Fed adalipira mabanki 4.75% pachaka pakubwereketsa "pazenera lochotsera". Kotero ndi ndalama zodula ku banki. Ngati angathe kukopa osunga ndalama, akhoza kubwereka ndalama zotsika mtengo. Chifukwa chake kufunika kobwereka pawindo lochotsera pamitengo yokwera chotere ndikodabwitsa.
Ngongole yayikulu idayamba kukwera pafupifupi chaka chapitacho, kufika $10 biliyoni kumapeto kwa Novembala 2021, yomwe ikadali yotsika. Chapakati pa Januware, Federal Reserve Bank of New York idasindikiza positi yabulogu yotchedwa "Kukula Kwaposachedwa Kwakubwereketsa Kuchotsera." Sanatchule mayina, koma adanenanso kuti mabanki ang'onoang'ono ambiri akuyandikira zenera lakuchotsera ndipo kukhwimitsa kachulukidwe kawo mwina kwachepetsa kwakanthawi ndalama zawo.
Koma kubwereka pawindo lakuchotsera kwatsika kuyambira Novembala ndipo kuli $ 4.7 biliyoni lero. Ingotsatirani:
Zosungira zazikulu za Fed nthawi zambiri zimakhala makina opangira ndalama. Zilipobe, koma chaka chatha zinayamba kulipira chiwongoladzanja chokwera - pamene chinayamba kukweza mitengo - pa ndalama zomwe mabanki adayika ndi Fed ("zosungirako") ndipo makamaka ndalama za msika wa Treasury pogwiritsa ntchito mgwirizano wa reverse repurchase (RRP). Kuyambira Seputembala, Fed yayamba kulipira chiwongola dzanja chochulukirapo pazosungidwa ndi RRP kuposa zotetezedwa zake.
Fed idataya $ 18.8 biliyoni kuyambira Seputembala mpaka Disembala 31, koma idapeza $ 78 biliyoni kuyambira Januware mpaka Ogasiti, kotero idapezabe $ 58.4 biliyoni pachaka chonse. Mwezi watha, adawulula kuti adasamutsa ndalama zokwana madola 78 biliyoni ku US Treasury mu Ogasiti, chofunikira kuchokera ku Federal Reserve.
Ndalama zotumizira izi zidayamba kutayika mu Seputembala ndipo zidayimitsidwa. A Fed amatsata zotayika izi sabata iliyonse muakaunti yotchedwa Transfers of Revenue to US Treasury.
Koma musadandaule. Bungwe la Federal Reserve limapanga ndalama zake, silimathera ndalama, silimatayika, ndipo chochita ndi zotayikazo ndi nkhani yowerengera ndalama. Izi zitha kuzunguliridwa powona zomwe zatayikazo ngati chuma chomwe sichinasinthidwe ndikuziyika muakaunti ya ngongole "Kusamutsa ndalama zomwe zimaperekedwa ku US Treasury".
Chifukwa kutayika kwa akaunti ya ngongole kunali kokulirapo, akaunti yonse yayikulu sinasinthidwe pafupifupi $41 biliyoni. Mwanjira ina, zotayika sizimakhetsa likulu la Fed.
Kodi mumakonda kuwerenga WOLF STREET ndipo mukufuna kuthandizira? Mutha kupereka. Ndine wothokoza. Dinani Makapu a Tea & Iced Kuti mudziwe momwe:
Chifukwa chake, pafupifupi $ 3.5 thililiyoni. Kunena zoona, sindikutanthauza kunyoza kapena kunyoza. Iwo anandiposa zimene ndinkayembekezera chaka chapitacho.
Kuchulukirachulukira, kodi tchati chonse cha "katundu" chikutanthauza chilichonse chofanana ndi mphamvu kapena kuwongolera chuma cha US kapena zochitika?
Kupanga inflation (chiŵerengero cha "ndalama" ku chuma chenicheni) kuti "kuchira" masoka oyambirira (ndi otsatizana) si njira yopambana, koma mbiri ya pathological.
Zoyembekeza zanu ndizochepa. Pamene msika wamasheya ukubwezeretsanso zotayika zake zambiri ndikukhalanso kuwira kwakukulu, mungaganize kuti angafune kudula mapepala awo mwachangu, koma ndikuganiza kuti vuto pano ndiloti sangathe kutaya masikelo awo popanda kutaya. kutayika kwa tebulo. Chifukwa chake, a Fed amayenera kuletsa kukwera kwa mitengo ndikuchepetsa chiwongola dzanja, kenako ndikuchotsa ndalamazo mwachangu.
Lingaliro langa ndiloti Fed ndi yokonzeka kukweza mitengo kuti ichepetse kutsika kwa mitengo chifukwa imawononga chuma chenicheni, koma sichikufuna kugulitsa katundu chifukwa idzachotsa chithandizo chamsika, zomwe zimapweteka anzawo onse olemera m'matumba awo. Kupatula apo, Fed ndi gulu chabe la mabanki. Sasamala za wina aliyense koma iwo eni.
Sindimagwirizana ndi chiphunzitso chanu, makamaka m'mawonekedwe ake okhutiritsa, koma chimapereka chithunzithunzi chosangalatsa. Monga kasino, kasino ayenera kulola wosewera kuti alandire mtengo. Nyumbayo ili ndi mwayi wotenga mtengo wonse, koma masewerawa atha. Kwa ine, Fed siidzikonda mopanda chifundo ngati gulu la mabanki. Monga palibe amene sali mu kalabu, ndapindula kwambiri ndi dongosolo lino la ngongole ndi ndalama, ngakhale kwa zaka zambiri ndi zochitika.
Quantitative tightening (QT) ya MBS imachedwa kwambiri kotero kuti imalola kukopa kwachindunji popeza ndalama zomwe zili ndi MBS zimatha kupereka ngongole zanyumba zaulere kapena zogula zenizeni.
Uku si "kukondoweza kwachindunji". Zimangokoka pang'onopang'ono. Koma zimakokerabe.
Aliyense akuwoneka kuti akuyang'ana chifukwa chotaya ndalama pamsika wa zimbalangondo. Ino ndi nthawi yoti muwerengenso Memoirs of Stock Manipulator pansi pa dzina lachinyengo la Edwin Lefevre, yemwe kwenikweni ndi Jesse Livermore, wopeka. Palibe chomwe chinasintha. Msika wogulitsa ndi chimodzimodzi.
Tsopano ndikuwona mulu wa ndalama zagolide, fosholo ndi vani yolembedwa pambali pake "Harry Houndstooth Hauling Company".
Mosasamala mwachidule msika. Iyi ndiye rebound yomwe takhala tikudikirira ndipo nthawi yakwana yoponda gasi.
SQQQ inafika pachimake, SRTY inafika pachimake, ndipo SPXU ndi SDOW potsirizira pake anazindikira (monga Wile E. Coyote anagwa pathanthwe) kuti panali kugwa kwakukulu patsogolo pathu.
Kugulitsa kwa algorithmic kwakhala kovuta kwambiri, ndikutha kutsata maimidwe aatali komanso achidule. Amagwiritsa ntchito trailing kugulitsa ndi kugula zomwe zimachitika pa liwiro la kuwala kuti adziwe komwe angatengere msika, zomwe zimapweteka kwambiri kwa omwe amagulitsa ndalama. Mwachitsanzo, kusiya kutayika pa katundu waufupi kwambiri wamakampani omwe adasokonekera, akuthamanga pafupifupi pafupifupi, Fibonacci, pafupifupi voliyumu, etc. msika wogulitsa. Ichi ndi chimodzi mwazifukwa zomwe msika wa zimbalangondo udzakhalapo kwa nthawi yayitali. Fed ndiyosavuta. nkhokweyo ilibe mwayi wopeza mapulogalamu odalirika omwe amaganizira zosintha zonse zachuma (monga pamwambapa) kuti awerengere manambala azinthu zosiyanasiyana / nthawi kuti akwaniritse zolinga zawo - kunena kuti 2% inflation. Ma aligorivimu amatha kuwonongeka pakatha chaka kuyesa kumvetsetsa momwe angachitire
Palibe nthawi yayitali kapena yochepa. Gwirani malo agolide koma gulitsani molawirira kwambiri pa Disembala 28, 2022. Ndikadakhala wamfupi, ndikadatumiza izi ngati chenjezo kwa ogulitsa amfupi.
Ndikuyembekeza kuti US CPI idzakhala yokwera pang'ono mu Januwale kuposa mu December. Ku Canada, CPI inali yokwera kwambiri mu Januwale kuposa mu December. Popeza kuti chiwerengero cha CPI chikukwera mwezi ndi mwezi, ndikanakhala ndi maudindo akuluakulu afupikitsa kumayambiriro kwa January kapena ndikanaphedwa.
Ndikuvomereza kwathunthu. ndimakonda bukuli. Nditagulitsa zosankha zonse za Tesla mu Disembala, ndinagulanso njira zingapo za Tesla poyembekezera msonkhano. Tsopano gulani Seputembala / Januwale akuyikanso - Nvidia, Apple, Msft, ndi zina zambiri. Tiyeni tiyembekezere kuti gawo lotsatira ndi lakuthwa komanso lalitali ngati misika ina ya zimbalangondo.
“Ndinagulitsa zonse zimene ndikanatha. Kenako magawowo adakweranso, mpaka pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri. Zinandiyeretsa. Ndinali wolondola ndi wolakwa.
Mwa njira, Edwin Lefebvre ndi wolemba weniweni komanso wolemba nkhani. Anacheza ndi Jesse Livermore ndipo analemba bukuli potengera zokambiranazo. Livermore nayenso ali ndi buku lomwe adalemba yekha, koma sindikukumbukira mutuwo tsopano. Iye ndithudi si katswiri wolemba, ndipo zimasonyeza.
Ndamvapo nkhani zina, kuphatikiza za Lacey Hunt, zomwe zikuwoneka kuti zikuwonetsa kuti mwina ndi choncho.
sindikuzifuna. Mabanki pakali pano akuyesera kukopa madipoziti ochulukirapo ndikukulitsa zopereka zawo, makamaka pogulitsa ziphaso zamalonda kwa makasitomala atsopano m'malo mopereka mitengo yapamwamba kwa makasitomala omwe alipo (omwe amalipirabe msonkho wa kukhulupirika). Mabanki akhala ndi nthawi yochuluka yopezera ndalama zamtundu uwu, ndipo akutero. Ndikayang'ana pa CD yogulitsira malonda, ndikuwona mu akaunti yanga yamalonda ndi chiwongoladzanja cha 4.5% mpaka 5%. Mabanki tsopano akusakasaka ma depositi. Pali ndalama zambiri mu ndalama za msika wa ndalama, ndipo ngati mabanki amapereka mitengo yapamwamba, amakakamiza ndalama zina kuchoka ku ndalama za msika wa ndalama kupita ku ma CD ndi ma akaunti osungira. Mabanki safuna kuchita izi chifukwa amawonjezera mtengo wawo wandalama ndikuyika malire awo, koma amatero.
"Tikuyembekezerabe umboni uliwonse kuchokera ku Fed kuti ikulingalira mozama za kugulitsa kwa MBS kuti iwonjezere ndalama zokwana $ 35 biliyoni pamwezi. Pakali pano, ikuyenera kugulitsa pakati pa $15 biliyoni ndi $20 biliyoni pamwezi. abwanamkubwa angapo a Fed adanenanso kuti Fed ikhoza kupita komweko. ”
Momwe ndimapeputsa Pow Pow, ndipereka ngongole ngati angayiyambitse. Tikukhulupirira kuti izi zidzakhudzadi kutsika kwa mitengo yanyumba ndikufulumizitsa kutsika kwamitengo komweku. Funso ndilakuti adadikira nthawi yayitali bwanji kuti ayambe? Kodi a Fed sakanayamba kugulitsa MBS, mwina pang'ono pang'ono, nthawi yomweyo QT ikuyamba? Ndikudziwa kuti amalola kuti iziyenda bwino, koma ngati sakonda kukhala ndi MBS m'mabuku awo, mungaganize kuti kulimbikitsa + kugulitsa nthawi yomweyo kungakhale yankho labwino kwambiri.
Phoenix_Ikki, ndizovuta kwa ine kudziwa kuchuluka kwa MBS yomwe Fed inali nayo isanafike 2006-2009. Kodi Fed ili ndi chuma chilichonse? Ngati Fed sinakhalepo ndi MBS m'mbuyomu ndipo msika wobwereketsa udakula, chifukwa chiyani kugulitsa kwa Fed kwa MBS yake tsopano kuli ndi zotsatira zoyipa pamitengo yanyumba ndi msika wanyumba?
Amakonda ngongole ya nyumba kuposa ngongole yomwe siinawaumirire. Anagulanso ma bond amakampani/zopanda pake, ngakhale pang'ono, zomwe zidagweranso kunja kwa ntchitoyo. Komanso si "kuyimitsidwa kwa mkt ku ma accounting a mkt."
Nthawi yotumiza: Feb-28-2023